Recession or Depression?

DJI laosai -6.98% wow biggest drop in a day I’ve seen.
Markets are tanking nowdays , not a good sign …

Odd revelation

Sorry for the lack of updates , been working on my dissertation for the past 4 months. I’m still considering how to post it online in this blog once I finish the submission requirements.

Just yesterday, even though I came back quite tired from gym and aikido, my mind was still sub-consciously having a workout during my sleep.

I was dreaming of this scenario in singapore, the property might pickup the next 2 years instead of going into a recession after the stock market crash started by the credit crisis. Why? Alot of people are now holding on to cash after pulling out of the stock market (causing it to crash! investors are willing to lose money?!). We all know that interest earned on cash in hand or in the bank for that matter, does not provide good returns to beat inflation. Oil prices have just almost breached below the psychological barrier 100 per barrel, the commodity bubble has burst ( the last I read there is an oversupply of wheat now). Gold is under 800. So in this bearish market when everything looks bleak, where would high net-worth investors park their money for higher yield? I believe property will be the first sector to climb up, currently in this low interest rate environment, it is cheap to get loans for property,and banks are freely giving out credit card like advertisement flyers. The two IRs are coming up in the next two nears , meaning more jobs created and the people who are going to fill those jobs definitely need shelter. Infrastructure wise,the Circle line is slated to be operational from 2010, downtown line is well on it’s way, Developers are testing/previewing the marketing there are better opportunities ahead to push property sales esp near to MRT stations.

The confluence of many factors and many assumptions like the continued low interest rate environment during this inflationary period (stagflation). What is unlikely to happen is a property market crash, property prices might come down but not sharply that I’m sure , given the sound fundamentalsof the property market in singapore. Every above is based on gut feel and not to be taken as investment advice, I probably need to do further research and validate with some figures and charts.