Fundamental drivers of development

Here is a summarised table of how the world will change within the next 10 years, in particular context of mobile technology.

Technology	Socioeconomic and political	Business and industry	Users, values, attitudes
Processing power will increase exponentially (Moore’s law)	Globalization will increase	Industries mature over time	Values change at the pace of generations
Fiber and memory capacity will increase exponentially	Democratization will increase	Companies strive towards monopoly	Individualism will increase
Capacity in air will increase but slower than in fiber	Aging population (Industrial world)	Attractive markets attract new entrants	Importance of family and friends will increase
Battery capacity will increase very slowly	Shift towards knowledge industry (OECD countries and NICs)	Scale and learning economics (improving price/performance)	Value of free time and experiences will increase
Miniaturization of components will increase	Market economy prevails (but counter movements will continue)	Complexity diseconomics	Need for mobility and communication will increase
Digitalization will increase	Fight against terrorism and crime, in particular cybercrime, will continue	Value chains will increase in complexity (value networks)	Increased technology adoption in everyday life
Standardization will increase	Social differences will increase	Wireless infrastructure cost will fall more slowly than for electronics (Zander’s law)	Different user groups have different values and needs
Internet development dominating	Increasing amount of information and choices	Value of network increases with number of nodes (Metcalfe’s law)	Environmentalism and health concerns will increase
Large and complex systems become increasingly difficult to control centrally	Air bandwidth is affected by political decisions	Value of information and knowledge will increase	Explosion in social group formation in very large networks (Reed’s law)

Sustainable Urban Transport Asia – Videos

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3