Chindia

Old itches are hard to scratch, since pulling statistics from Walpha is as easy as counting 123, I’m back to comparing india and china again.

This time focusing on population demographics. I’ve looked at the total population and age distribution as well as life expectancy

However from the median age, one can straight away deduce that india has a younger population than china. ie 25.1 years compared to china’s 33.6 years.

Population Distribution

India| child | adult | elderly | all
male | 16.48% | 32.59% | 2.464% | 51.54%
female | 15% | 30.74% | 2.725% | 48.46%
all | 31.48% | 63.33% | 5.188% | 100%

China | child | adult | elderly | all
male | 10.68% | 36.95% | 3.808% | 51.45%
female | 9.421% | 34.96% | 4.171% | 48.55%
all | 20.1% | 71.92% | 7.979% | 100%

31.48% of 1.17 billion indian children > 20.1% of 1.31 billion chinese children

We know that human captial is a economic resource, however young children needs to survive until they become economically productive adults.
and India’s life expectancy is much lower than that of china by 3.6 yrs. So the question remains , does india have more economic potential than china?

Housing SS Analysis

It’ s been a while since I posted my last technical analysis on planning indicators. And since current my job is related to planning  housing in asia and middle east, it is long over-due that I looked that the housing market around this region.  The primary data I used,

• Mid-year population
• Average number of people in each household
• Total number of residential dwellings
• Total number of new residential dwellings completed in the year concerned

The following assumptions were taken,

•  I did not take into consideration different types of housing ie luxury/low-cost
• 1 Dwelling unit = 1 household
• All Dwellings catered for local resident population use / not inclusive of rental units for expatriates

Plotting all the above information across 10 years so as to capture trends , we have

NB: Dataline for China/India follows axis on the right

Some of my observations.

•  Upward trend of housing shortage in most of the asia/middle east countries
• Decreasing supply of new dwellings 0.13% (China) and 0.24% (India) against annualised population growth of 2.2% and 2.88% respectively
• Japan has consistent oversupply of housing given above projections

What I’ve put together are crude indicators that establishes only trends.For further analysis of specific countries I would consult detailed real estate reports from the various property developers.

Tit for Tat

I expected this, China is a bigger bully than India.
http://business-times.asiaone.com/sub/news/story/0,4574,207835,00.html?

Blocked investments in India may trigger Chinese retaliation

By SIDDHARTH SRIVASTAVA
IN NEW DELHI

BEIJING is unhappy that New Delhi is blocking investment by Chinese firms in telecoms and ports on grounds of security – and industry sources and officials say China is likely to retaliate.

In what is seen as a strong indication of the thinking in Beijing, China’s ambassador to India Sun Yuxi said this week that China wants to invest strongly in India, but is facing difficulties as a result of the ’security’ restrictions.

He implied there was an investment imbalance with 150 Indian companies engaged in about 2,000 projects in China and just 50 Chinese companies active in India.

There is plenty at stake. India’s rapidly rising telecoms industry is expected to sell equipment worth more than US$8 billion in the next few months, with orders from companies such as Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson and Alcatel.

As part of the infrastructure ramp-up in the country, India is looking to invest over 600 billion rupees (S$20 billion) to build 13 ports.

‘We are facing restrictions on investing here. We are facing difficulty in investing here. How can Chinese firms be a security threat to India as the two countries are friends?’ Mr Sun asked. ‘There are no big problems to solve between the two countries,’ he added.

He said that China plans to set up a steel factory in India. China already imports large quantities of Indian iron ore. Mr Sun noted that bilateral trade has been growing at a fast pace and is slightly in favour of India, which is ‘very good’.

Indian officials, however, say that there are elements of distrust in dealings with Beijing, given the past. The two countries fought a war in 1962. The economic goodwill between the two countries has not translated into Beijing’s support of India on the Indo-US nuclear pact, or backing at the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), a seat at the UN Security Council or the end of China’s support for Pakistan’s military programme. In contrast, New Delhi can look to strong backing from Washington.

Indian diplomats regard Beijing as difficult to deal with and the two countries remain bitter competitors, especially for energy resources.

One example is relations with Myanmar, where China is said to have been secretly dealing with Yangon to access gas, even as India’s former petroleum minister Mani Shankar Aiyer was in Beijing.

While China has been accommodating to India in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, many Indian commentators regard this as just a superficial way of keeping Chinese exports to India strong. New Delhi knows that the battle for central Asian energy resources will be bitter. India has been developing independent links with various Central Asian countries, with India’s first military base in Tajikistan becoming operational soon.

Observers, however, say that if New Delhi continues its discriminatory foreign investment approach, Beijing’s actions are likely to extend beyond words. One group at risk are the Indian information technology (IT) companies seeking contracts from Chinese organisations. Indian companies Tata Consultancy Services, i-flex Solutions and Infosys are bidding for a contract to update IT at the Bank of China, but face competition from international vendors such as Accenture and IBM.

There is immense potential for business in China. According to research house IDC, Chinese businesses will spend US$9.4 billion on technology services alone in 2006, up from US$3.74 billion in 2002. According to Gartner, China is expected to pull in US$27 billion from IT services by 2007. The consultancy predicts that Indian companies will carve out 40 per cent of the share, unless politics gets in the way – which is possible.

WTF, Stupidity and Protectionism

The Times of India

No Chinese firms in Indian ports

India has decided to ban China firms from investing in or managing Indian
ports due to security concerns, The Times of India reported. The decision
effectively blocks Chinese involvement in the construction of 13 planned
ports across India, valued at some US$13 billion ($20.5 billion). – AP

Why is India doing a P&O . India and China are not on different continents neither are they separated by the Atlantic ocean. In fact they share a common border. Although they have disagreements with regards to Tibet but we are Asians for God’s sake. Darn. Maybe there are chinese terrorists after all

Business Standard, Article Abstract

Singhal, A. (2004). Lessons from China ; In recent years, a lot has been written on the… Business Standard: 15.

In recent years, a lot has been written on the Chinese economic miracle and the inherent learnings for India. The March issue of National Geographic has a disturbing cover story titled “China: The Price of Growth”. The sheer magnitude of ecological damage that has already been inflicted on the Chinese landscape makes the author of this very insightful article wonder “whether the Chinese have not so much been creating an economic superpower as committing ecological suicide”. And over the years, if this remains unchecked, the impact on the environment shall be felt globally rather than merely in China.

BPO Facts and Figures

Taken From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_process_outsourcing_in_India

• Size and Growth of BPO in India

Year	Size (US$ Bn)	Growth Rate
2003	2.8	59%
2004	3.9	45.3%
2005	5.7	44.4%

Currently the Indian BPO Industry employs in excess of 245,100 people and another 94,500 jobs are expected to be added during the current financial year (2005-2006)

Taken from http://www.ciol.com/content/news/BPO/2004/104061801.asp

BEIJING: China’s technology outsourcing market grew 34.2 percent in 2003, faster than the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, said computer maker Hewlett-Packard Co.

The country’s technology outsourcing market was estimated to be worth $318 million last year, Hewlett-Packard (HP) said in a statement quoting research firm IDC.

2800 Mil Vs 318 Mil USD! quite a considerable difference. No wonder China wants to play catch up by 2007. India not waiting to lose it’s marketshare is shuffling to move up the value chain into KPO markets

Industrialisation , size capacity – China Vs India

The size of the industry in India is 4 times smaller than in China yet it generates 4 times more income. Still fiquring out how and why. More research material to come later.

Forgot to mention the secondary data sources used

1. Nominal GDP (US$ at PPP)
2. Industry/GDP
3. Urban population
4. Electricity production (kwh)
5. Electricity consumption (kwh per head)
6. Installed electricity capacity (kw)
7. Electricity transmission and distribution losses (% of output)

From various usual sources , WorldBank ,IMF , US, Energy Information Administration

Pace of Urbanisation in China

Urban cities in China are expanding at feverish rate , I’m predicting it will hit a unsustainable peak of 60% before leveling off or dropping in the next 50 years